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The Monthly Bitcoin Analysis (November)

Disclaimer: The information on the Bitcoin Analysis is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended to be distributed or used by residents of any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our Bitcoin Analysis is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our Bitcoin Analysis are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our Analysis (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Key technical indicators and observations.

Don't miss our article on technical analysis that will provide the necessary information to help you navigate the bitcoin market. 

  • Current price (28.10.2019): $7’300
  • Closest Support / Resistance level: $6’500 / $8’000
  • Change in price (monthly): -17%
  • Change in price (since January 1st): +94%
  • Change in volume (monthly): -19%

BTC/USD (weekly): RSI(14), 20 and 200 days moving average, descending triangle, RSI(14), and volume. (Source: tradingview.com)

  • Last month we ended with a discussion of the impact of the announcement made by China, which had boosted the market and could be a potential catalyst for a strong bullish movement.
  • For some time, a typical flag pattern formed above $9’000 that could suggest a period of consolidation before a potential violent rise. However, when the price converged to the 200-day moving average, the price dropped sharply as it fell below this critical moving average.
  • For several days, the sales pressure was very strong and the price fell steadily. Once it quickly reached the support observed before China's announcement, the fall accelerated.
  • The selling pressure was so violent that even the critical support at $6’500 was tested. This level is the key level for Bitcoin because it is followed by all traders since the end of 2018. Fortunately for the bulls, recovery has been observed once the price rebounded on the support. However, the trend is still strongly downward and the price is caught in a descending triangle pattern with the risk of re-testing the key support.

What could we expect for the future?

As discussed, a strong catalyst has not been enough to generate an important bullish momentum in the medium term. For the time being, we can expect a period of consolidation that would be healthy for the future. Indeed, with the fear that the $6’500 level will be tested again if the price stabilizes this would be reassuring for most traders and recovery could be triggered.

During any violent movement, a return to the average is always observed and the price is far from the 200-day moving average today. It should also be remembered that in recent years, the price of Bitcoin has often benefited from Christmas periods.

On the contrary, if the buying pressure is not strong enough, we can expect the $6’500 level to be quickly re-tested with a high risk that the price will fall back to the $5’000 region if this level does not hold.

The market as a whole has suffered from these violent movements. However, altcoins with Ethereum in the lead are experiencing a slight recovery phase. Will Altcoins finally bloom this winter?

Don't miss the free daily analyses offered by our experts in the  SwissBorg Community application to miss anything!

Glossary

  • Moving Average (MA): Trend-following indicator derived from the simple average of the prices on a given time period (for example 20 days).
  • Support/Resistance: Levels where the prices will tend to stop and could probably reverse its trend. A support level will likely tend to stop the prices dropping while resistance is a level where the selling pressure is higher and will likely stop the price rising. Once a support or resistance level are reached, the price will bounce back or break through the level and continue his actual trend.


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